Title: The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television
Abstract: Abstract Abstract The article investigates three mechanisms by which expectation dynamics affect innovation processes. Empirically, it focuses on hype–disappointment cycles in electronic commerce and interactive television, drawing on results from qualitative case studies and secondary analysis. First, two specific ways by which collective, i.e. widely shared, expectations motivate and guide innovation actors are presented. These mechanisms serve as an explanation for the fact that often an impressively large number of heterogeneous actors accept and contribute to high-rising expectations. With reference to a third mechanism, it is shown that results of technological projects are subject to interpretative flexibility and, as such, are interpreted in the light of the same expectations they are supposed to ‘validate’. Sudden changes of the consideration of certain technologies as promising or not are then explained as a result of the interaction between collective expectations and expectations and outcomes at the project level. Acknowledgements I want to thank Mads Borup, Annette Ruef, Jochen Markard, Bernhard Truffer, Nik Brown and two anonymous referees for their valuable contributions to this paper. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from the German Research Foundation (DFG). Notes 1. N. Brown, Hope against hype—accountability in biopasts, presents and futures, Science Studies, 16(2), 2003, pp. 3–21. 2. R. Hoogma, Exploiting Technological Niches. (Enschede, Twente University Press, 2000). 3. R. O. van Merkerk & D. K. R. Robinson, Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: expectations, agendas and networks in lab-on-a-chip technologies, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 18(3/4), 2006, pp. 411–428; F. W. Geels & R. Raven, Non-linearity and expectations in niche-development trajectories: ups and downs in Dutch biogas development (1973–2003), Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 18(3/4), 2006, pp. 375–392; G. Bender, Technologieentwicklung als Institutionalisierungsprozess, Zeitschrift für Soziologie, 34(3), 2005, pp. 170–187. 4. Brown, op. cit., Ref. 1. 5. N. Brown & M. Michael, A sociology of expectations: retrospecting prospects and prospecting retrospects, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 15(1), 2003, pp. 4–18. 6. G. H. Mead, Mind Self and Society (Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 1934). 7. E. Durkheim, Les Règles de la Méthode Sociologique (Paris, Flammarion, 1988) [originally published 1895]. 8. P. L. Berger & T. Luckmann, The Social Construction of Reality (New York, Doubleday, 1966). 9. H. van Lente, Promising Technology. The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological Developments (Enschede, Twente University Press, 1993), p. 193. 10. It should be noted though that innovation and discourse activities are an analytical distinction; in practice they are not mutually exclusive. Moreover, in a broader sense discourse activities may be considered as part of innovation activities, since they contribute to innovation processes. Here, I want to emphasise that not only discourse activities in the narrow sense (rhetorics) contribute to collective expectations but also innovation activities. 11. More generally, this applies to the generation of meaning in social interaction. See H. Blumer, Symbolic Interactionism: Perspective and Method (London, Prentice Hall, 1969). 12. Van Lente, op. cit., Ref. 9, p. 187; A. Rip & R. te Velde, The dynamics of innovation in bioengineering catalysis—cases and analysis, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, 1997, p. 11; F. Geels & W. Smit, Lessons from failed technology futures: potholes in the road to the future, in: N. Brown, B. Rappert & A. Webster (Eds) Contested Futures—A Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science (Aldershot, Ashgate, 2000). 13. Brown & Michael, op. cit., Ref. 5; Geels & Smit, op. cit., Ref. 12. 14. M. Callon, The sociology of an actor-network: the case of the electric vehicle, in: M. Callon, J. Law & A. Rip (Eds) Mapping the Dynamics of Science and Technology—Sociology of Science in the Real World (Basingstoke, Macmillan Press, 1986); M. Callon, Society in the making: the study of technology as a tool for socio-logical analysis, in: W. E. Bijker, T. P. Hughes & T. J. Pinch (Eds) The Social Construction of Technological Systems (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 1987). 15. P. Weingart, A. Engels & P. Pansegrau, Risks of communication: discourses on climate change in science, politics, and mass media, Public Understanding of Science, 9(3), 2000, pp. 261–283. 16. A. Schutz, Equality and the meaning structure of the social world, in: Collected Papers II (The Hague, Martinus Nijhoff, 1964). 17. H. van Lente & A. Rip, Expectations in technological developments: an example of prospective structures to be filled in by agency, in: C. Disco & B. Van der Meulen (Eds) Getting New Technologies Together: Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order (Berlin, Walter de Gruyter, 1998), p. 225. 18. Alcatel-SEL, Bosch-Telecom, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. 19. See also K. Konrad, Prägende Erwartungen: Szenarien als Schrittmacher der Technikentwicklung (Berlin, Edition Sigma, 2004). 20. R. Strauß & D. Schoder, E-Reality—Electronic Commerce, Von der Vision zur Realität (Frankfurt/Main, Consulting Partner Group, 2000). 21. http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp, accessed 24 October 2005. 22. A. Colecchia, Defining and measuring electronic commerce—towards the development of an OECD methodology, Paper presented at the Conference on The Measurement of Electronic Commerce, Singapore, 1999; J. Coppel, E-commerce: impacts and policy changes, Economics Department Working Papers No. 252, OECD, Paris, 2000. 23. For Internet projects of the popular science magazine introduced above and various multimedia projects of a German department store, see Konrad, op. cit., Ref. 19. 24. W. H. Dutton, Multimedia visions and realities, in: H. Kubicek, W. Dutton & R. Williams (Eds) The Social Shaping of Information Superhighways—European and American Roads to the Information Society, (Frankfurt/Main, Campus, 1997), p. 134. 25. W. H. Dutton, J. G. Blumler & K. L. Kraemer (Eds), Wired Cities—Shaping the Future of Communications (Boston, G. K. Hall, 1987). 26. Dutton, op. cit., Ref. 24, p. 134ff. 27. U. Riehm & B. Wingert, Multimedia—Mythen, Chancen und Herausforderungen (Mannheim, Bollmann Verlag, 1995), p. 74f. 28. Ibid., p. 81f. 29. H. D. Hellige, Von der programmatischen zur empirischen Technikgeneseforschung: Ein technikhistorisches Analyseinstrumentarium Für die prospektive Technik bewertung, Technikgeschichte, 60, 1993, pp. 186–223 and p. 204. 30. K. Auletta, The Highwaymen. Warriors of the Information Superhighway (New York, Random House, 1997), p. 224. 31. Cf. Ibid., p. 224. 32. Riehm & Wingert, op. cit., Ref. 27, p. 82. 33. Tom Grieb, General Manager of GTE ‘Main Street’, cited in J. Flower, TV's loose connections, New Scientist, 146(1971), 1995, pp. 34–39. 34. Auletta, op. cit., Ref. 29, p. 227. 35. G. Fuchs & H.-G. Wolf, Regional economies, interactive television and interorganisational networks: a case study of an innovation network in Baden-Württemberg, European Planning Studies, 5(5), 1997, pp. 619–637. 36. As stated above, media attention is an appropriate indicator particularly for widespread expectation dynamics. Accordingly, the case of interactive television is not as evident as e-commerce or Internet. However, a comparison with other data, e.g. the content of the articles or the debate in expert journals and newsletters, shows that also here the decline of media attention is correlated to a disappointment phase. 37. R. Nilsson, My-world—Erfahrungen eines Online-Shopping-Anbieters, in: D. Ahlert (Ed.) Internet & Co. im Handel: Strategien, Geschäftsmodelle, Erfahrungen (Heidelberg, Springer, 2000), p. 169. 38. Karstadt rückt von Online-Träumen ab, Financial Times Deutschland, 20 July 2001. 39. P. R. Wheale & L. H. Amin, Bursting the dot.com ‘bubble’: a case study in investor behaviour, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 15(1), 2003, pp. 118–136. 40. Forrester Research, Press release 12 March 2001: Digital camera and cable video on-demand will transform movie distribution and create new revenue opportunities; Jupiter Media Metrix, Press release 26 March 2001: Interactive TV to outpace overall online growth in the U.S., but fragmented market will hinder widespread deployment. 41. Geels & Raven, op. cit., Ref. 3.
Publication Year: 2006
Publication Date: 2006-07-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 220
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