Title: Car Ownership and Urban Transport Demand in Singapore
Abstract: Using a household survey as its basis, the effect of income on automobile ownership decisions and the influence of key variables on decisions regarding work-related trips in a Singaporean context are investigated in this study. Automobile ownership income elasticity is 0.5944 according to a binary logit model, which means that automobiles are treated as necessary for commuting purposes by the owners. The implication that the annual vehicle population growth rate can be lowered by the Singaporean government from the current three percent to one to two percent, which is more sustainable in the long term, is inherent in the low income elasticity. Income elasticity for public and private transportation is respectively -0.257 and 1.385, as indicated by a discrete choice model between public and private transportation. Private and public transportation cost elasticity is respectively -0.888 and -0.020, which implies that usage cost changes greatly influence automobile owners' decisions on whether to drive to work, while public transportation users remain a captive audience. Private transportation cross travel time elasticity for public transportation is 1.157, which implies that more automobile users will be attracted to public transportation by substantial travel time reductions through public transportation use. The Singaporean government may achieve this through expansion of bus priority lanes during peak travel times and encouragement of express service provision by bus operators. Finally, during peak travel time the implied travel time savings value for private transportation is S$22.76, or approximately 102% of gross average automobile owner wage rate, an important congrestion pricing scheme parameter.
Publication Year: 2011
Publication Date: 2011-02-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 14
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