Title: Public Opinion Polls and the British General Election
Abstract: As of November 1949, polls taken in Great Britain indicated that the Conservative Party would win the next general election by a narrow margin. In this article, the Director of one of the British survey agencies, Research Services Ltd., analyzes his results up to that time in an effort to determine whether pollsters in Britain are making some of the errors which led to the incorrect forecasts of their American counterparts in November 1948. By allowing for corrections in the composition of his sample, evaluating the probable behavior of the respondents who laid “don't know,” and examining the likelihood of shifts in voting intentions, the author arrives at the conclusion that it is anybody's election. A landslide either way is most unlikely—barring major opinion shifts at the last minute. His analysis also shows that Liberals and those who are undecided hold the balance of power. The major party which appeals most effectively to these two groups is likely to emerge victorious. Finally, this article outlines some of the thorny problems with which poll-takers must contend before they publish their final predictions.
Publication Year: 1950
Publication Date: 1950-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
Access and Citation
AI Researcher Chatbot
Get quick answers to your questions about the article from our AI researcher chatbot