Title: The strengths and weakness of travel demand model systems for assessing emission reduction policies
Abstract: Systems of models which predict various aspects of travel behaviour—frequency of travel, choice of destination, choice of mode, choice of route, etc.—are now often applied to predict the influence of transport policies. The forecasting horizon for such studies is often as long as 15–25 years into the future. In recent years, the environmental and energy impacts of private travel have become vital issues in transport policy assessment. The main question addressed in the paper is thus what travel demand model systems can and cannot yet tell us about long-term changes in emissions from private transportation. The paper first outlines the typical structure, inputs and outputs of travel demandmodel systems. Then, two European case studies are described—one in the Netherlands and the other in Norway. In both cases, predictions of future emissions levels were key results. These studies illustrate both the strength of such models in providing a detailed and realistic treatment of the demand for travel, but also some current weaknesses with respect to predicting fuel use and emission rates. The final section discusses two particular areas of modelling which can address these weaknesses. The first area is that of vehicle purchase behaviour. Further progress in this area will allow better forecasts of the makeup of the car park in terms of the fuel use and emissions characteristics of the vehicles. A second area is that of driving behaviour, as might be influenced by, for instance, lower speed limits, in-vehicle information systems or greater environmental awareness.
Publication Year: 1993
Publication Date: 1993-06-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 1
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