Title: Effects of national forest timber harvest on softwood stumpage, lumber, and plywood markets : an econometric analysis
Abstract: Effects of alternative schedules for timber harvest from the national forests on prices, consumption, and production of softwood stumpage, lumber, and plywood in the United States are examined. A simplified theoretical model illustrates the role of key market relations in determining the extent and direction of changes in and quantity of products in response to a shift in public timber supply. Preliminary quantitative estimates of impact on and quantity that result from supply changes are derived from the models and data presented in several existing studies. A multiproduct, multiregional econometric model of U.S. softwood markets is developed and its predictive ability examined. The model is used to project market behavior under two alternative harvesting schedules on national forests for the period 1976 to 2000. Two contrasting policies are simulated: an Organic Act policy of gradual reductions in cut to roughly 50 percent below recent rates, and a price control policy in which cut is increased as needed to constrain inflation in lumber and plywood prices during the period from 1976 to 2000.
Publication Year: 1977
Publication Date: 1977-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 15
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