Title: Chinese–Russian Convergence and Central Asia
Abstract: Abstract Since the mid-1990s, China's and Russia's strategic outlooks have gradually been converging. The two great powers have incrementally shed their mutual apprehensions and started a comprehensive and multifaceted cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Simultaneously, as the rift between the US and Russia has opened up and the differences in their views on regional security in Eurasia have become even more evident, China's and Russia's quests for new models for regional security in Central Asia have gained ground. Enveloping the Central Asian states on issues of collective and energy security, both states are sternly against US dominance in international affairs. In this sense, they have initiated a new geopolitical script around Central Asia. As their mutual interests hold sway over US influence regionally, questions remain on whether specific interests are compatible, or harbour new rivalries. Chinese–Russian interaction in Central Asia reveals that there might be limits to the future expansion of their partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors recognise the support of the Ministry of Defence for a project leading up to this publication, and Jan Risvik and Susan Høivik at NUPI for valuable help with the manuscript. Notes 1. The literature on the SCO is emerging as the organisation itself gains in significance. For two recent reports, see Ingmar Oldberg, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Power House or Paper Tiger', FOI Report (Swedish Defence Analysis Institute) (June 2007); and Alyson Bailes, Pál Dunay, Pan Guang, and Mikhail Troitskiy, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organization', SIPRI Policy Paper 17 (May 2007). 2. See Julie Wilhelmsen and Geir Flikke, 'Evidence of Russia's Bush Doctrine in the CIS', European Security 14/3 (2005) pp. 387–417. 3. Rajan Menon defines strategic convergence as involving multifaceted cooperation and a convergence of views and interests on important questions of international security. It is sustained not by trust and goodwill but by calculated self-interest and a desire for leverage vis-à-vis third parties, especially the United States. Rajan Menon, 'The Strategic Convergence between Russia and China', Survival 39/2 (Summer 1997) p. 101. 4. Critical geopolitics sees speech acts as practices of geopolitics. Space is shaped by talk and talk about practices. This talk is often a prime instrument of statecraft. See Gearóid Ó Tuathail and Simon Dalby (eds.), Rethinking Geopolitics (London and New York: Routledge 1998) pp. 2–3. 5. Thomas Ambrosio, 'Russia's Quest for Multipolarity: A Response to US Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era', European Security 10/1 (2001). 6. 'Primakov sleduyet ideyam Gorchakova', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 29 April 1998. 7. Igor Ivanov, 'Rossiya v menyayushchemsya mire', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 25 June 1999. 8. Ambrosio, 'Russia's Quest for Multipolarity' (note 5) p. 62. 9. Ibid., p. 52. 10. Rajan Menon, 'The Strategic Convergence between Russia and China', Survival 39/2 (Summer 1997) p. 101. 11. <http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/18016.htm#5>, accessed 7 Dec. 2007. 12. For this, see Oksana Antonenko, 'Russia and the Deadlock over Kosovo', Survival 49/3 (2007) pp. 91–106, where she outlines that R-NAC appointed a working group on common approaches to peacekeeping. Antonenko also concedes that the Kremlin increasingly sees NATO as a threat. 13. For a more detailed story, see Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, The Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin's Russia and the End of Revolution (Washington, DC: Potomac Books 2007) pp. 136–137. 14. Ibid. 15. <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/05/20020525-2.html>, accessed 7 Dec. 2007. 16. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2032498.stm>, accessed 7 Dec. 2007. 17. Aleksander Belkin, 'US-Russia Relations and the Global Counter-Terrorist Campaign', Journal of Slavic Military Studies 17/1 (2004); and <http://www.rferl.org/reports/securitywatch/2002/07/24-020702.asp>, accessed 10 Dec. 2007. 18. Condoleezza Rice, 'A Balance of Power that Favors Freedom', available at <http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1202/ijpe/pj7-4rice.htm>, accessed 10 Dec. 2007. 19. For an account on the emerging consensus, see Peter Dombrowski and Rodger A. Payne, 'The Emerging Consensus for Preventive War', Survival 48/2 (2006). 20. See Aleksander Nikitin, 'Preemptive Military Action and the Legitimate Use of Force: A Russian View', unpublished paper for the CEPS/IISS European Security Forum, Brussels, 13 Jan. 2003. Dov Lynch has observed that this included to 'ensure the centrality of the UN in the formation of a new world order' while striving to 'rethink the scope of self-defence and the preventive use of force'. Dov Lynch, 'The Enemy Is at the Gate: Russia after Beslan', International Affairs 81/1 (2004) pp. 141–161. 21. 'Speech by Minister Igor Ivanov at the Moscow State Linguistic University', 10 March 2003, available at <http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/sps/F86F1E321D750A2443256CE500460763>. 22. <http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/sps/ED83168FAC44510143256CE60053CC49>. 23. Sergey Ivanov, 'Russia's Geopolitical Priorities and Armed Forces', Russia in Global Affairs 1 (Jan.–Feb. 2004). 24. For a discussion of this transition, see Geir Flikke, 'Pacts, Parties and Elite Struggle: Ukraine's Troubled Post-Orange Transition', Europe-Asia Studies 60/2 (2008) pp. 375 –396. 25. 'Russia and US Reach Deal on WTO', Financial Times, 10 Nov. 2006, available at <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1789a098-70b0-11db-8e0b-0000779e2340.html?nclick_check=1>. 26. RFE/RL Newsline, 23 Feb. 2007. 27. RIA-Novosti, 16 Nov. 2007, available at <http://en.rian.ru/world/20071116/88449990.html>. 28. For a good overview of China's strategies for coping with US power, see Denny Roy, 'China's Reaction to American Predominance', Survival 45/3 (Autumn 2003) pp. 57–78. 29. Thus, the December 1999 summit between Jiang Zemin and Yeltsin concluded with joint statements that no country should 'interfere in another sovereign country's attack against domestic terrorism', that Russia supports 'China's principled stand on the Taiwan issue' and that attempts to violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty were 'unacceptable'. They also expressed 'deep regret' over the US Senate's refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and opposed the 'reinforcing and expanding of military blocs' (referred to in RFE/RL Newsline, 10 Dec. 1999. 30. Jeremy Branstein, 'Shanghai Five Summit Focuses on Separatism, Regional Ties', RFE/RL Features, 25 Aug. 1999. 31. Rajan Menon, 'The Strategic Convergence between Russia and China', Survival 39/2 (Summer 1997) p. 101. 32. For a discussion of the discrepancy between Russian and Chinese economies in this period, see Dmitri Trenin, Russia's China Problem (Moscow: Carnegie Center 1999) p. 28. 33. According to Merry, Putin's westward turn and the commitments Russia made following 9/11 caused great concern in China. See Wayne Merry, 'Moscow's Retreat and Beijing's Rise as Regional Great Power', Problems of Post-Communism 50/3 (May/June 2003). 34. Bobo Lo, 'The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia's Evolving China Policy', International Affairs 80/2 (2004) p. 297. 35. Ibid. 36. On this, see Bobo Lo, 'China and Russia, Common Interests, Contrasting Perceptions', CLSA Asian Geopolitics, Special Report (2006) pp. 9–10 and 12. 37. Ibid., p. 12. 38. Although there has been no final decision on the pipeline routes for East Siberian oil, the construction of a pipeline to Skovorodino close to the Chinese border, would make Russia the largest single supplier of oil to China. In addition, Gazprom signed a memorandum in 2006 on building two gas pipelines to China. With these two pipelines, Russia could cover almost all gas import to China in the future. See Itoh on the potential for a closer affinity between Russia as an energy provider and an economically booming China in need of fossil fuels (Shoichi Itoh, 'Sino-Russian Energy Partnership: Dilemma of Cooperation and Mutual Distrust', in Greg Austin and Marie-Ange Schellekens-Gaiffe (eds.), Energy and Conflict Prevention (Hedemora: Gidlunds förlag 2007) pp. 57–77). Uncertainties cloud these prospects, however. As the Russian-built ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Oil) pipeline designed to bring 80 million tons of crude oil annually to Russia's East has materialised in 2008, plans to build a Chinese spur off this pipeline is stranded on differences over export volumes and prices between China and Russia. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 Oct. 2008. 39. 'Russia and China: United by Foreign Policy, Divided by Energy Prices', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 May 2008. 40. In 2007, trade with Russia accounted for only 2 percent of China's trade total (Ian Bremmer, 'Should We Be Worried about Russia and China Ganging up on the West?', 29 Aug. 2007, available at <http://www.slate.com/id/2172874/>. 41. 'The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation', 12 July 2008, available at <http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2008/07/204750.shtml>, accessed 3 Dec. 2008. 42. Peter Ferdinand, 'Russia and China: Converging Responses to Globalisation', International Affairs 83/4 (2007) pp. 655–680. 43. See Vladislav Surkov, 'Suverentitet – eto politicheskiy sinonim konkurrentosposobnosti', 22 Feb. 2006, available at <http://www.edinoros.ru/print.html?id=111148>. 44. Ferdinand (note 42) pp. 673–674. 45. Ferdinand thus argues that 'despite the changes in the Chinese economy in recent years, the central and provincial state authorities continue to play a crucial role in determining both its structure and its performance'. Ibid., pp. 664–665. 46. Ibid., p. 679. 47. Dmitri Trenin, 'Russia and Central Asia: Interests, Policies, and Prospects', in Eugene Rumer, Dmitri Trenin, and Huasheng Zhao (eds.), Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow and Beijing (Armonk, NY: ME Sharpe 2007) pp. 75–136. 48. The USA established military bases at Khanabad in Uzbekistan and at Manas in Kyrgyzstan. A decision was also made in the summer of 2002 to provide military training to Turkmenistan. 49. Francesca Mereu, 'Russia: CIS Collective Security Treaty Members Meet over Afghanistan, Terrorism', CDI Weekly 182 (2003), available at <http://www.cdi.org/russia/182-5.cfm>. 50. 'CIS Summit Takes up Economic Integration, Anti-Terrorist Cooperation', RFE/RL Central-Asia Report, 6 Dec. 2001. 51. Ibid. 52. 'Rossiya i SNG: Sostoyanie i perspektivy', 8 Aug. 2002, available at <http://www.ln.mid.ru/Ns-rsng.nsf/arh/017F25C25EFAE86843256C1D003CD669?OpenDocument>. 53. Allison notes that Moscow became more passive or critical than cooperative in regional Partnership for Peace initiatives and that the working groups established under the new NATO–Russia Council, which could have a Central Asian expression, did not produce any outputs. See Roy Allison, 'Strategic Reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy', International Affairs 80/2 (March 2004). 54. On this, see John O'Loughlin, Gearoid O Tuathail, and Vladimir Kolossov, 'Russian Geopolitical Storylines and Public Opinion in the Wake of 9–11: A Critical Geopolitical Analysis and National Survey', Communist and Post-Communist Studies 37/3 (2004) pp. 281–318. 55. Allison (note 53) pp. 291–293. 56. 'Ministerstvo oborony protivitsya novomu geopoliticheskomu peredelu SNG', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 26 Nov. 2004. 57. Marika Karayianni, 'Russia's Foreign Policy for Central Asia Passes through Energy Agreements', Central Asia and the Caucasus 22/4 (2003) pp. 90–96. 58. Eurasianet.org, 29 April 2003. 59. Anna Matveeva, 'Return to Heartland: Russia's Policy in Central Asia', The International Spectator 42/1 (March 2007) p. 50. 60. The independence-minded Muslim Uighurs have for a long time posed a complex challenge for China. With a diaspora community in Central Asia, mainly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, the Uighurs have been seen by the Chinese authorities as potential 'fifth columnists' who could threaten the territorial integrity of China. Under Chinese pressure, Kyrgyz, Kazakh and also Uzbek leaders began to restrict the legal operation of pro-Uighur cultural groups from late 2002. 61. Historically, the impact of foreign military threats – particularly czarist or Soviet – in Central Asia has been central in Chinese security thinking and still is so today. On this, see Russell Ong, 'China's Security Interest in Central Asia', Central Asian Survey 24/4 (Dec. 2005) pp. 425–441. 62. Ibid., p. 434. 63. The Shanghai Five (later SCO) was established in 1996, largely as a confidence-building measure to facilitate a cooperative environment for border management involving Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, China, Russia and, from 2001, also Uzbekistan. Following its establishment, the SCO had been used as a framework to increase collective efforts to cope with security threats, primarily terrorism. 64. Ong (note 61) p. 431. The Chinese National Petroleum Company owns a controlling interest in the Kazakhstan production company Aktobemunaigaz. 65. All this is derived from Martha Brill Olcott, 'Is China a Reliable Stakeholder in Central Asia?', Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publication (Aug. 2006). 66. Rajan Menon, 'The New Great Game in Central Asia', Survival 45/2 (Summer 2003) pp. 187–204. 67. Matveeva (note 59) p. 55. 68. Martha Brill Olcott, 'The Great Powers in Central Asia', Current History (Oct. 2005) p. 332. 69. Martha Brill Olcott, 'US Relations to Uzbekistan: A Double Standard or a Second Class Treatment?', Testimony to the US Congress, 14 June 2007, available at <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/ index.cfm?fa=view&id=19315&prog=zru>. 70. 'Karimov Makes Rare Visit to Moscow for Talks with Putin', RFE/RL Feature Article, 15 April 2004. 71. For example, Russian television is still the main source of information and entertainment. 72. Martha Brill Olcott, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Changing the Playing Field in Central Asia', Testimony before the Helsinki Commission, Sep. 2006. 73. 'Declaration of Heads of Member States of Shanghai Cooperation Organization', 5 July 2005, English translation available at SCO home page: <http://www.sectsco.org/home.asp?LanguageID=2>. 74. 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For an outstanding comparative study of the expansion of presidential powers in the post-Soviet space, see Timothy Frye, 'Presidents, Parliaments, and Democracy: Insights from the Post-Communist World', in Andrew Reynolds (ed.), The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2002) pp. 81–103. 106. Thomas Ambrosio, 'Catching the Shanghai Spirit: How the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Promotes Authoritarian Norms in Central Asia', Europe-Asia Studies 60/8 (2008) pp. 1321–1344. 107. Itar-Tass, Shanghai, 16 June 2006. 108. William Engdahl, 'China Lays down Gauntlet in Energy War', Asia Times, 21 Dec. 2005. 109. 'Manas Agreement under Review', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 May 2007. 110. 'Kyrgyz Instability Presents Challenges for Russia, China and the SCO', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 May 2010; and 'The UN Accepts the CSTO as a Regional Security Organization', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 March 2010. 111. Marcel de Haas, 'The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's Momentum towards a Mature Security Alliance', available at <http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2008/20080100_cscp_haas_art_sm.pdf>. 112. Bailes et al. (note 1) p. 22. 113. Ibid., p. 6. This conclusion was also drawn by Alyson Bailes (see ibid., p. 6.) 114. 'Shangkhaiskiy dogovor vmesto Varshavskogo', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 10 Aug. 2007, available at <http://www.ng.ru/politics/2007-08-10/1_dogovor.html>. 115. 'China is Edging Russia out of Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 Aug. 2007. 116. 'V mire: Lyu Gouchan otvechaet Yuliyu Baluevskomu', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 13 Aug. 2007, available at <http://www.ng.ru/week/2007-08-13/11_vmire.html>. 117. The Moscow Times, 16 Aug. 2007. 118. 'Poka ne srastayutsya', Nezavisimoye voennoye oobozrenie, 13 April 2007, available at <http://nvo.ng.ru/wars/2007-04-13/2_odkb.html>. For the MoU, see <http://www.sectsco.org/news_detail.asp?id=1786&LanguageID=2>. 119. 'Russian Radio Pundits Discuss Role of Shanghai Group, Relations with China', BBC Monitoring, derived from Johnson's Russia List, 20 Aug. 2007. 120. See for instance Boris Rumer, 'The Powers in Central Asia', Survival 44/3 (2002) pp. 57–68. 121. 'Armeyskoe bratstvo SNG dyshit na ladon', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 27 May 2005. 122. Ibid. 123. 'CSTO Activities in the Period of the Russian Chairmanship', MFA statement, 8 Dec. 2005, available at <www.ln.mid.ru>, accessed 25 Sep. 2008. 124. 'Vladimir Putin na blizhayshchiy god vozglavit sovet ODKB', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 June 2005, available at <http://news.ng.ru/2005/06/23/1119531832.html>. 125. 'Organizatsiya dogovora o kollektivnoy bezopasnosti', 26 Dec. 2007, available at <http://www.mid.ru/Ns-rsng.nsf/arh/6DC0CFAB8620256C43256DF600325656?Open>, accessed 4 Jan. 2008. 126. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 and 19 Sep. 2008. 127. 'Declaration of the Moscow Session of the Collective Security Council of the CSTO', 5 Sep. 2008, available at <http://www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/39AE7686F5EA1126C32574C20032F125>, accessed 12 Nov. 2008. 128. 'Sozdaetsya evraziyskaya semerka', Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, 28 Oct. 2005, available at <http://nvo.ng.ru/wars/2005-10-28/1_7ka.html>. 129. Interfax, 9 May 2006. 130. Quotes and facts from 'Kyrgyzstan Content to Host Russian and American Air Bases', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 Sep. 2005. 131. Itar Tass, 24 May 2007. 132. 'Moskva beret Bishkek na soderzhanie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 Aug. 2007, available at <http://www.ng.ru/cis/2007-08-23/1_moscow.html>. 133. Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 Oct. 2008. 134. Interfax, Moscow, 4 Sep. 2008; and 'Kremlin Seeks Control over Strategic Airbase in Tajikistan', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 Nov. 2008. 135. Huasheng Zhao, 'Central Asia in China's Diplomacy', in Eugene Rumer, Dmitri Trenin, and Huasheng Zhao (eds.), Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow and Beijing (Armonk, NY: ME Sharpe 2007). 136. Gulnoza Saidazimova, 'Beijing Makes Further Inroads into Central Asia', RFE/RL Features, 21 June 2006. 137. Although China has not been a major investment country, its capacity and interest is growing. In 2004, China established a large credit fund of US$900 million for its Central Asian partners in the SCO. 138. There is common ground for a free economic zone that includes complementary Central Asian and Chinese economies: while the Russian and Central Asian economies are based mostly on natural resources and therefore make more natural competitors, China is strong on manufacturing and the production of consumer goods. 139. The EEC announced in 2006 an ambition to establish a customs union between its member states, to be in place by the end of 2008. There have also been talks about establishing a hydropower consortium. 140. 'Klubnaya karta ShOS', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 Nov. 2007, available at <http://www.ng.ru/cis/2007-11-02/100_shos.html>. 141. Ibid. 142. In June 2006, on the eve of the SCO summit in Shanghai, China's National Petroleum Corporation reached a deal with Uzbekistan to invest US$210 million in oil and gas exploration over the next five years. Also in June, US$50 million were allocated for a loan to improve Uzbekistan's irrigation system. RFE/RL Newsline, Endnote, 22 June 2006. 143. Following a 2006 Kazakh–Chinese meeting, it was agreed to establish a fund (US$5 billion) to finance future joint projects, particularly in the field of infrastructure, telecommunications and metallurgy. 'Kitai na provode', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 22 Jan. 2007. China has also signed a deal to build a hydropower station in Kazakhstan (RFE/RL Newsline, Endnote, 22 June 2006) and recently the China National Nuclear Corporation and China Nuclear Guangdong Power Corporation purchased 49 percent of the shares in the Kazatomprom nuclear company. See Farkhad Sharip, 'European Energy Consumers Likely to Lose Kazakhstan Battle to "Oriental Bloc"', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 Dec. 2007. 144. Zhao (note 135) p. 166. 145. PetroKazakhstan was bought for US$4.18 billion with a stake offered to KazMunaiGaz, the state-owned Kazakh gas company. 146. Farkhad Sharip, 'China Secures New Access to Kazakh Oil', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 Dec. 2007. 147. The construction of BTC was undertaken on the assumption that it would carry not only Baku oil, but also a major share of Kazakh oil from Tengiz and offshore Kashagan oil fields. With the new Kazakhstan–China pipeline, the oil flow from Kashagan would go east, not west. William Engdahl, 'China Lays down Gauntlet in Energy War', Asia Times, 21 Dec. 2005. 148. The Chinese even offered to share the financial burden of the project on a parity basis to speed up the project, and there have been no political strings attached. 149. Indeed, according to Russian experts, while Russian oil export to China fell in 2007, oil supplies to China from Kazakhstan have been enjoying rapid growth. This is largely facilitated by the swift completion of the new oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to China ('Russian Expert Urges Closer Cooperation with China', Interfax, 4 Jan. 2007). 150. See Sergei Blagov, 'Stung by Cheney's Comments, Moscow Plays Energy Card', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 May 2006. 151. 'Russian, Central Asian Leaders Strike Crucial Natural Gas Pipeline Deal', AP, 13 May 2007. 152. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao apparently succeeded in laying the groundwork for finalising this deal during his tour of Central Asia following the 2007 SCO summit in Tashkent. On this, see John C. K. Daly, 'Kazakhstan Moves Further away from Russian Domination', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 Nov. 2007; and Farkhad Sharip, 'China Secures New Access to Kazakh Oil', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 Dec. 2007. 153. 'Russian, Central Asian Leaders Strike Crucial Natural Gas Pipeline Deal', AP, 13 May 2007. 154. On 15 December, Nazarbayev in his address on Independence Day stressed that hydrocarbons would be exported 'in all four directions', Khabar TV, 15 Dec. 2007. 155. In 2007, 62 percent of Kyrgyzstan's imports came from China, as compared with 17 percent from Russia. 156. In April 2005, the Chinese CAMC Company and the Chinese Export and Import Bank signed a contract for the construction of a new cement plant in Kyrgyzstan at the cost of US$80 million; 'Beijing Seeks Partners for Electricity Deals', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 June 2006. 157. 'Moskva beret Bishkek na soderzhanie', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 Aug. 2007, available at <http://www.ng.ru/cis/2007-08-23/1_moscow.html>. 158. The idea of a 'liberal imperialism' was launched in 2003 by RAO EES head Anatoly Chubays and implies the gradual absorption of the economies of the CIS countries by Russian companies. 159. Sergei Kulikov, 'Torzhestvo liberalnovo imperializma', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 29 Jan. 2008. 160. 'China Advances its Interests in Central Asia through SCO', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 April 2005. 161. 'Russia Struggles to Finalize Caspian Gas Pipeline Deal with Turkmenistan', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 Nov. 2007. 162. 'Russian, Central Asian Leaders Strike Crucial Natural Gas Pipeline Deal', AP, 13 May 2007. 163. It was agreed to raise the price of Turkmen gas to Gazprom from US$65 to US$100 per thousand cubic meters in 2006. The December agreement entails raising the price to US$130 for the period January–June 2008 and to US$150 for the remainder of that year. From 2009, market forces will determine the price level of Turkmen gas to Gazprom. Interfax, 13 Dec. 2007. 164. Aleksei Malashenko, 'Russia and Turkmenistan', Russian Analytical Digest 29 (16 Oct. 2007) p. 3. 165. 'Giant Gas Deposits Confirmed in Turkmenistan', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 Oct. 2008. 166. The multi-vector orientation is evident from Berdymukhamedov's clever positioning and bargaining over the gas pipelines, aimed at diversifying his country's energy partnerships in the wake of the leadership change. 167. The difference between China's 'energy diplomacy', as more cautious, compromise-seeking and willing to overpay to keep good relations, and Russia's, more offensive and control-seeking, has been highlighted in case studies on how Russian and Chinese companies compete for control over Kazakh oilfields. See Kimberly Marten, 'Russian Efforts to Control Kazakhstan's Oil: The Kumkol Case', Post-Soviet Affairs, 23 Jan. 2007, pp. 18–37. 168. Murat Auezov, former Kazakh ambassador to China, quoted in RFE/RL Newsline, Endnote, 22 June 2006. 169. Malashenko (note 164) p. 4. 170. Bailes et al. (note 1) p. 9.
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