Title: Impacts of the global economic crisis and national policy responses on children in Cameroon
Abstract: AbstractThe impacts of the 2008–2009 global economic crisis and various policy responses on child monetary and caloric poverty in Cameroon are simulated. For this purpose, a macro-micro methodology is adopted. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model takes into account the different transmission channels of the global crisis and macro policy responses to Cameroon's economy. The results of the CGE model are then introduced into a micro-econometric module to trace the ultimate impacts on households in general and children in particular. The global crisis is simulated to raise child monetary poverty by roughly two percentage points and caloric poverty by up to 0.56 percentage points. A targeted child cash transfer and school feeding programs are found to be the best policy responses in terms of cost-effectively protecting children from the crisis.RésuméLes impacts de la crise économique de 2008–2009 et de différentes politiques sur la pauvreté monétaire et calorique des enfants au Cameroun sont simulés. À cette fin, une méthodologie macro-micro est adoptée. Un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC) tient compte des différentes voies de transmission de la crise mondiale et des réponses macro-politiques à l’économie camerounaise. Les résultats du MEGC sont ensuite introduits dans un module microéconométrique afin de cerner les effets sur les ménages et, en particulier, sur les enfants. Les résultats montrent que les programmes de transfert en espèces ciblant les enfants et de repas scolaires offrent le meilleur rapport coût-efficacité pour protéger les enfants de la crise.Keywords: child povertyglobal economic crisissocial protectionCameroonWest and Central Africa AcknowledgementsThe authors convey their sincere thanks to all who have helped, in any way whatever, in this study. They express particular gratitude to Ora Musu Clemens-Hope, Aissata Ba Sidibe, and Apollinaire Kingne (UNICEF Cameroon); Anthony Hodges and Barbara Bentein (UNICEF Regional Office for West and Central Africa [WCARO]); Leonardo Menchini (UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre [INS]); Julianna Lindsey (UNICEF Ghana); Hamidou Poufon (UNICEF Benin); Gildas Banda Gnitchogna (UNICEF Cameroon); Abdoulaye Diagne (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale [CRES], Senegal); Massa Coulibaly (Groupe de recherche en économie appliquée et théorique [GREAT], Mali); Joseph Tedou (INS, Cameroon); Dieudonné Bondoma Yokono (MINEPAT, Cameroon); Martin Mba (INS, Cameroon); Faustin Kono and Jean Pascal Nkou (MINEPAT, Cameroon); Rosalie Niekou, Guy Ndeffo, Azer Nantchouang, Ghislain Dongmo, and Alain Talom (INS, Cameroon); Hervé Lys Kwadjio and Engelbert Olomo Ateke (MINAPAT, Cameroon); participants of conferences held in Dakar (UNICEF Regional Office for West and Central Africa [WCARO] Social Policy Network Meeting, November 2–5, 2009; WCARO Annual Meeting of Representatives, November 16–18, 2009) and in London (the UNICEF–ODI conference on the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis: Including Children in the Policy Responses, London, November 9–10, 2009); and to participants at the First Session for 2010 of the Monitoring Committee of the Cameroon-UNICEF Cooperation Programme Goals, held in Yaoundé on March 17, 2010. English translation by Nathan Weatherdon.Notes1. For some other examples, see Bibi et al. (Citation2010b) for the case of the impacts of the global food crisis on children in Mali, Dercon and Krishnan (Citation2000) for the case of individual shocks in Ethiopia in 1994 and 1995, and Attanasio and Szekely (Citation2004) for the case of Mexico during the 1990s.2. See Robillard, Bourguignon and Robinson (Citation2008) for a general presentation of this “top-down” approach. For a partial equilibrium analysis of the poverty impacts of crisis, refer to Wodon (Citation2012).3. A child is in a state of caloric poverty if the ratio of her/his caloric intake to age- and sex-specific caloric requirements, as defined by World Health Organization (WHO) nutritional tables, is less than one.4. Other likely impacts include reduced school attendance, increased child labor and reduced access to health care.5. Monetary poverty fell from 53.5 to 39.9 per cent between 1996 and 2007, whereas the proportion of underweight children aged 0 to 5 fell from 22.2 to 19.3 per cent between 1998 and 2006 (UNDP Citation2008).6. See UNDP Citation2008.7. According to the World Development Indicators database (published by the World Bank; http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators, accessed September 2009), Cameroon's exports and imports were respectively 29 per cent and 28 per cent of its GDP in 2008. In the same year, these figures were respectively 33 and 32 per cent on average for low income countries (which includes Cameroon) and 37 and 40 per cent for countries in sub-Saharan Africa.8. Calculations made using IMF data posted in 2010 at www.indexmundi.com (accessed December 2010).9. See World Development Indicators, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators (accessed September 2009).10. In 2008, ODA support provided by DAC members was 93 per cent of total ODA.11. For more details, see Bibi et al. (Citation2010a).12. The assumption of flexibility in the informal sector (free entry/exit, flexible wages, etc.) and rigidity in the formal labor market is adopted in several studies. See, for example, Boccanfuso and Savard (Citation2001).13. We use historical data from Cameroon's Statistical Yearbook 2008 (in French; INS Citation2009a) to compute annual population growth rates. The breakdown of labor supply into specific categories is based on the trend growth rates of rural, urban skilled and urban unskilled populations, which are extrapolated from 2001 and 2007 data in the ECAM3 household survey (INS Citation2008).14. In fact, economic crisis can lead to increases in child labor. While this can, in principle, be captured in this modeling framework – as can school attendance and access to health services, for example – we have left it out to simplify this illustration.15. Equivalence scales were used to account for caloric needs by age and sex (see FAO/WHO/UNU, Citation1985).16. See INS (Citation2008) for regional poverty lines.17. These results closely mirror actual growth rates observed ex post with the biggest fall in 2009 and a subsequent rebound: 3.6 per cent (vs. 3.8% simulated by our model) in 2008, 1.9 (vs. 2.9) in 2009, 3.3 (vs. 3.4) in 2010 and 4.1 (vs. 3.6) in 2011 (IMF Citation2013). Of course, actual growth rates reflect many other factors occurring during the 2008–2011 period that are not included in our ex ante analysis.18. In 2007, roughly two-thirds of children living in rural areas suffer from monetary poverty, compared to 14 per cent in urban areas. 91.5 per cent of poor children live in rural areas.19. Results are not shown here for lack of space and can be obtained by the authors on request.20. Correlation coefficient equal to 0.40, 0.37 and 0.33 respectively in 2009, 2010 and 2011.21. In the case of an earlier economic crisis in the 1990s, and the ensuing structural adjustment plans, Pongou, Solomon and Ezzati (Citation2006) show that the prevalence of child malnutrition increased from 16 to 23% nationwide and from 19 to 25% in rural areas.22. In 2001, for example, 96 per cent of agricultural goods were produced by the informal sector.23. Hoddinott and Haddad (Citation2005) provide a classic analysis of the impact of female income shares on intra-household allocation of resources.24. See Bibi et al. (Citation2010b), for such an analysis in a purely micro-econometric simulation framework.Additional informationBiographical notesJohn Cockburn is a professor of economics at Université Laval, Quebec, and until 2013 was the executive director of the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP). His PhD is from Nuffield College/Centre for the Study of African Economics at Oxford University. He specialises in child poverty, macro-micro modelling, and trade policy analysis. He has been providing training and technical support to developing country researchers since 1990.Arnault Christian Emini is a Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaoundé II. His doctorate, from the same university, used the computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact of 1994 tax reforms that introduced an imperfect VAT to the Central Africa Customs and Economic Union. His current interests include trade reforms related to the EU's ACP Economic Partnership Agreements.Luca Tiberti has a PhD in development economics from the University of Florence. His research interests are child poverty, the socio-economic impacts of economic crises, and income and health inequalities. In 2008–2010 he was a researcher at UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre. He has been at Université Laval since 2011, first as a post doctorate researcher and since 2013 as a research fellow with the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP).
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-07-03
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 4
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