Title: Quantification of Modeling Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Analyses
Abstract: Traditional uncertainty quantification techniques in engineering analysis concentrate on the quantification of parametric uncertainties: inherent natural variations of the input variables. In problems with complex or newer modeling methodologies, the variabilities induced by the modeling process itself (known as model-form and predictive uncertainties) can become a significant source of uncertainty to the problem. This work demonstrates two model-form uncertainty quantificationmethods on an unsteady aeroelastic problem: Bayesianmodel averaging and the adjustment factors approach.While the Bayesianmodel averaging approach ismore robust and has been shown to more completely quantify the total uncertainty, it also requires the presence of experimental data, which are not always readily available in preliminary design. As such, this work introduces an uncertainty quantification methodology for use in aeroelastic analysis that uses the modeling uncertainty to drive the necessity of further experimental data points.Within thismethodology, themodified adjustment factors approach has been developed to calculate the sensitivity of the adjusted models to the model probability assumptions being input into the work, facilitating the flow of the design methodology.
Publication Year: 2011
Publication Date: 2011-05-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 39
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