Title: Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II
Abstract: All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. This does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions. Evidence is presented, however, that even over the period 1948-72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious, supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the U.S. recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance.
Publication Year: 1983
Publication Date: 1983-04-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 3422
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