Title: A Chinese New Year Aware ARIMA Model for Electricity Consumption Forecast
Abstract: The forecast of electricity consumption has a siginificant impact on both economics and society.Various models have been developed to make this forecast accurate.Among them is the highly successful ARIMA model which is based on time series analysis.However, when applied local in China, ARIMA forecast is not as accurate as expected, due to the moving holiday effect of Chinese New Year feastive period.This paper proposes a revised ARIMA model which adjusts its forecast by the use of a China New Year (CNY) coefficient.Preliminary experimental results on real data show that this revised model outperforms the traditional one.