Abstract: Some observers of the domestic and international financial markets are reminded of the herd syndrome when they examine market trends. Financial institutions seem to enter and exit markets as a group. The phenomenon results in overcrowding at first, then a massive evacuation of the market once it's saturated. Even if sometimes profitable, rapid entry into markets followed by a quick exit is not the most efficient way for a bank to allocate its resources. Although flexibility is very important in capturing lucrative business opportunities - and is a cornerstone of successful management - entry and exit costs can be overwhelming. The fact that a particular market is at a certain point in time should not be sufficient justification for an institution to enter it. Banks must address the underlying issues of strategic fit and resource allocation before hopping from one opportunity to the next, or they could risk losing more than the entry and exit costs. The purpose here is to suggest some guidelines to consider when deciding whether or not to diversify into new markets. Some examples of temporarily hot markets may be helpful for context. Me lenders. Domestically, we saw Denver followed by Houston, in recent years, as cities where banks rushed to from all over the country to be me too lenders in those markets. When circumstances caused those markets to sour, customers and the banks themselves suffered, a situation that was exacerbated by many players. Similarly, commercial banks flocked to the real estate lending market in the 1980s, and many of those banks today would do things differently. But conventional wisdom said that the market could only go one way - up. Banks by the droves rushed in, hoping for a sizable piece of that pie. When the market collapsed, particularly in some regions, banks paid the price. Product darlings, too, characterized the 1980s. Leveraged buyouts (LBOs), for example, swept the industry and resulted in major losses across the board. Overseas, a similar phenomenon is evident. U.K. Gilts, Euro commercial paper, and Japanese equity warrants were very popular for a time but soon disappeared from the spotlights. The Gilts market, for example, opened to free-market competition in 1984. Dealers flooded it, which made the pie slices much smaller. Margins shrunk, the market overcrowded, and the product became overcommoditized, resulting in major losses and a mass evacuation of dealers. In the earliest stages of the Euro commercial paper market, margins were very thick because of the high risk involved - in Europe, credit ratings were not a prerequisite to commercial paper underwritings. The wide margins attracted many new entrants who underwrote commercial paper indiscriminately. The result: several major defaults that brought about a massive exit from the Euro commercial paper market. The Japanese equity warrants were riding high when the Japanese stock market was doing well. Much like our domestic real estate market, it appeared that there was no stopping the momentum of the equity warrants market. Many participants made this product the backbone of their business. The instruments were extremely profitable for three years, but banks were left holding the bag when the market dried up and disappeared virtually overnight. Rules of thumb. Strategic planning techniques, such as those that follow, can help banks weigh the merits of entering new markets, regardless of whether or not doing so is in vogue. (1) Market attractiveness/business strength matrix. This is a fundamental tool for making decisions based on the combination of how attractive an opportunity is and how well equipped a bank is to take advantage of the opportunity. Ideally, though rarely, the market is very attractive, and the bank is fully capable of taking advantage of it. The market attractiveness/business strength matrix helps organize your thoughts and formalizes the relationship between your bank's strengths and leverage points and opportunities in the marketplace. …
Publication Year: 1991
Publication Date: 1991-10-01
Language: en
Type: article
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