Title: Virtual regionalism, regional structures and regime security in Central Asia
Abstract: Abstract The failures of regionalism and regional structures for cooperation between the five CIS Central Asian states are well studied. However, explanations so far do not convincingly account for the apparent enthusiasm of these states for the macro-regional frameworks of the Eurasian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This article argues that, as with previous efforts at Central Asian regional self-organization, these broader organizations still largely represent a form of 'virtual regionalism'. But for the Central Asian states they offer a new and increasingly important function, that of 'protective integration'. This takes the form of collective political solidarity or 'bandwagoning' with Russia (and China in the SCO) against processes and pressures that are perceived as challenging incumbent leaders and their political entourage. A primary motivation for Central Asian leaders' engagement in the EAEC, CSTO and SCO, therefore, is the reinforcement of domestic regime security and the resistance of 'external' agendas of good governance or democracy promotion. These goals are concealed behind a discourse that denigrates the imposition of external 'values' and continues to give pride of place to national sovereignty. This offers little to overcome the underlying fractures between states in Central Asia. Keywords: regionalismsecurityintegrationRussia This article is part of the following collections: Critical Reader in Central Asian Studies: 40 Years of Central Asian Survey Acknowledgement The author is grateful for the editor's permission to incorporate here some of the argument from a previous article (Allison Citation2007). Notes The seriousness of border demarcation has been analysed in various studies. See, for example, Polat Citation(2002); International Crisis Group Citation(2002). This is a problem identified by scholars well before the formation of the CACO, EAEC etc. See, for example, Kubrick Citation(1997). For previous work on this issue, as part of a joint project, see Bohr Citation(2004). Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty, 28 May 2007; BBC Summary of World Broadcasts. Former Soviet Union. Available from: http://www.bbc.monitoringonline.com (henceforth BBC), Mon CAU 280507 sa/abm. If Uzbekistan is viewed as a 'hard' variant of neopatrimonialism, then Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are characterized here as a 'softer' variant (Ilkhamov Citation2007, pp. 66–67, 78). For research that supports this conclusion, see Graffe et al. Citation(2006). For a comprehensive account see Wilson Citation(2005). For a study of the broader phenomenon of semi-authoritarianism see Ottaway Citation(2003). An illustration of 'virtual politics' is President Nazarbayev's commitment, before parliamentary elections (for the Majlis, lower chamber), that 'as the guarantor of the constitution, I am doing my best to ensure the forthcoming election is free and fair', before stating 'I know that the Kazakh people will cast their votes only to that party whose words do not conflict with its deeds. This is Nur Otan [People's Democratic Party – the presidentially sponsored party]'. Kazakhstan Today news agency website, Almaty, 4 July 2007, BBC Mon Alert CAU 040707 ad/mk. Nur Otan, was the only party that managed to pass the 7% threshold to be elected to the Majlis in August 2007. There is a growing literature on the extent and nature of this new Russian authoritarianism. For a succinct interpretation of the Russian system as one of 'patrimonial authoritarianism', see Wallander (Citation2007, pp. 115–117). BBC Mon CAU 190108 nu/oh. This claim is well analysed in Ambrosio Citation(2007). Ambrosio (Citation2007, p. 249), notes in his conclusion that research should address the question 'whether Russia has sought to influence regional and global organizations to advance its anti-democratic agenda' – an issue not covered in his article. Such election monitoring has become one of the main political functions of CIS structures that otherwise do rather little to justify their existence. For the official Russian view of the CIS role, see Gorovoi Citation(2006). For example, a CIS mission of observers to monitor the Kazakh parliamentary elections, including representatives from the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly as well as the Russia–Belarus Union, described the election as 'free and transparent'; the SCO mission of observers described the voting it observed as 'free and open'; while the head of the mission of the ODIHR/OSCE long-term observers, Lubomir Kopaj, referred to OSCE standards that were not observed during the election and noted 'I have never seen a democratic country with one party'; Kazakhstan Today news agency website, Almaty, 3 July 2007, BBC Mon CAU 050707 nu/mi; Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty, 19 August 2007, BBC Mon CAU 190807 mi/ad, BBC Mon CAU EU1 Europol 190807 nu/oh; Itar-Tass news agency, Moscow, 19 August 2007, BBC Mon CAU 190807 nu/ad. According to the head of the SCO mission of observers the presidential election in Tashkent 'meets universally recognized international election standards'; Uzbek Television, Tashkent, 24 December 2007, BBC Mon CAU 241207 abm/fm. According to the head of the CIS observer mission, it was 'free, open and transparent' and 'in line with the principles of equality and democracy'; Uzbek Television, Tashkent, 24 December 2007, BBC Mon Alert CAU 241207 ta/as. The SCO secretary-general and head of the SCO observers mission to this election, Bolat Nurgaliyev, described it as 'legitimate, fair and open, which ensured a free expression of will by Russian citizens'; Interfax-Kazakshtan news agency, Almaty, 3 March 2008, BBC Mon CAU 030308 fm/ga. Joint statement, BBC Monitoring. Inside Central Asia (henceforth Inside Central Asia), issue 406, 17 December–1 January 2002. Inside Central Asia, 9 October 2005. Inside Central Asia, 24 October 2004; Tolipov Citation2006. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko, in response to questions about Russian relations with CACO, 30 August 2004, in http://www.ln.mid.ru 1842-30-08-2004. Discussions reported on Kazakh Khabar TV, 3 March 2005, Inside Central Asia, 6 March 2005. Report by Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty, 19 April 2007, BBC Mon CAU SA1 SAsPol 190407 ak/ga. Report by Kazakhstan Today new agency website, Almaty, 21 May 2007, BBC Mon CAU 210507 sa/nu. Tazhin sought international legitimacy for this position by making his case at a ministerial meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, which he chaired. In July 2007 Turkmenistan signed an agreement with the other Central Asian states, Russia and Azerbaijan on setting up a Central Asian regional information coordination centre for combating drug trafficking; Itar-Tass news agency, Moscow, 14 July 2007, BBC Mon CAU 140707 ad/fm. President Emomali Rakhmon set out these conditions as follows 'First, the countries of the region should become members of this union on an absolutely equal basis. Second, there should be a single legal framework. Third, the free movement of goods should be ensured, And lastly, members of the union should pursue the main goal, that is to rationally use water and energy and mineral resources'; Asia-Plus news agency website, Dushanbe, 13 September 2007, BBC Mon CAU 130907 sa/bma. This was stated during a visit to Astana. See Jamestown Foundation Citation(2008b). For an analysis of the background and prospects of the EAEC, see Kuznetsov and Gleason Citation(2000). The formal role and expectations of the EAEC are found in the statement setting it up; see Itar-Tass report, Moscow, 10 October 2000, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 11 October 2000, SU/3968 A/1. For meetings of these bodies see Asia-Plus news agency website, 20 November 2007, BBC Mon CAU 201107 nu/bs; Kyrgyz newspaper MSN, 24 August 2007, BBC Mon CAU 28080 fm/nj. The Council of Justice Ministers has operated since April 2002 with the task of forming a common legal policy and creating a legal system within the EAEC. For example in Astana in June 2004. See Inside Central Asia, 20 June 2004. Since October 2007 the post of executive secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States has been held by Sergei Lebedev, who directed the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service for the previous seven years. Like Bordyuzha and Rapota, he has the background to promote protective integration as a cornerstone of Russian strategy in Central Asia. Inside Central Asia, 20 August 2006. Initially the CSTO may assume tasks that seem more suitable for the EEC. For example, it has been announced that the CSTO will work to set up a so-called Eurasian Schengen Zone with the assistance of the EAEC; Jamestown Foundation Citation(2008a). Interfax news agency report, Moscow, 6 July 2007, BBC Mon CAU 060707 nu/mi. Memorandum signed on 4 October 2007; Asia-Plus news agency website, Dushanbe, 5 October 2007, BBC Mon Alert CAU 051007 fm/atd. Agreement to sign a plan of joint CSTO–SCO action was reached at a meeting in December 2007; Jamestown Foundation Citation(2008a). Russia offers weapons and military hardware to the armed forces and special services of CSTO member states at 'domestic' prices – the prices they are purchased by the Russian Ministry of Defence from the Russian Defence Export monopoly Rosoboronexport. But this subsidy may not amount to much of benefit since there is evidence that 'domestic' and export prices are similar; Jamestown Foundation Citation(2007c). Interview in Profil, 22, 13–19 June 2005. Interview of Bordyuzha in Nezavisimaya gazeta, 13 January 2006, p. 9. It has also been claimed that at the time of the Astana SCO in July 2005 summit Russia aired a proposal to prevent regime change in Central Asian countries through some 'mechanism of mutual assistance', legitimized by the SCO, that would provide Moscow with permission to carry out special operations in Central Asian states, as 'requested' by their regimes (Strokan Citation2005, p. 9). Interview in Novie izvestiya, 11 September 2007, p. 4. This process of political bonding is a probable function, for example, of the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly, which had its inaugural session in St Petersburg in March 2007. More specific measures are likely to be considered at the six monthly meetings of the Committee of Secretaries of the Security Councils of the CSTO. A meeting of the latter in September 2007 discussed 'development trends in the military and political situation in the area of CSTO operations and measures on countering emerging challenges and threats'; Kyrgyz Television 1, Bishkek, 21 September 2007, BBC Mon CAU 220907 ad/nj. Vyacheslav Volokh, Chief of the Directorate of Threats and Challenges of the Secretariat of the CSTO, in Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, No. 31, 14–20 September 2007, p. 1. The possibility of Turkmenistan joining the SCO has risen since the death of President Niyazov. SCO Secretary-General Bolat Nurgaliyev has stated that the SCO 'stands for Turkmenistan's integration and involvement in regional processes', that if Turkmenistan's leadership 'turns to the SCO then we will respond correspondingly'. Itar-Tass news agency, Moscow, 2 April 2007, BBC Mon CAU AS1 AsPol 020407 ta/bma. A symbolic illustration of this may be the decision of the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry to decline Turkey's request to take part in the 2007 Bishkek SCO summit as an observer (a status offered to Mongolia, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan). This decision, the local press suggested, was decided in Moscow and Beijing and reflected Turkey's NATO membership, rather than its Turkic commonality with Central Asian states. Komsomolskaya pravda v Kyrgyzstane, Bishkek, 17 August 2007, p. 2, BBC Mon CAU 220807 ad/ed. For example, at the Bishkek SCO summit in August 2007, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev proposed that a project to build a China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway should be given the status of a regional project within the SCO framework. Kyrgyz Television 1, 16 August 2007, BBC Mon CAU 160807 fm/hm/mi. Kazakh President Nazarbayev suggested that meetings of energy ministers from the SCO member and observer states should form an energy club and be a main element of an Asian energy strategy; Kyrgyz Television 1, Bishkek, 16 August 2007, BBC Mon Alert CAU 160807 ta/hm/bma. Kyrgyzstan, which has Russian (Kant) and American (Manas) air bases on its territory has suggested that a SCO logistics centre should be established in Kyrgyzstan's south for the use of SCO emergency ministries. This can be interpreted as a way to engage China in a low profile way, without duplicating security assistance programmes from other quarters. Kyrgyz Television 1, 20 September 2007, BBC Mon CAU 210907 ad/nj. However, a Chinese scholar argues, against the background of the 'colour revolutions', that 'the SCO should have the responsibility for Central Asia's security and stable development' and 'if there is a domestic problem which is significant enough to destabilize the entire region, or if there are external forces interfering … the SCO may consider intervention in the form of mediation, reconciliation, prevention of large-scale military clashes, and urgent economic assistance' (Zhao Citation2006, pp. 119–120). In this sense the SCO acts to reinforce illiberal political tendencies in the region. Given this, the low level of real integration in the region and Russia's antagonism to the 'coloured revolutions' there is little basis to the claim in one Central Asian study of the SCO that 'Given growing multilateral integration, the inequalities in the depth of democratic transformations in Central Asian states might produce an upward levelling effect, provided that this occurs in a way that does not affect the vital interests of larger SCO member states' (Maksutov Citation2006). As noted by the Russian commentator Sergei Strokan (Citation2005, p. 9) in assessing the 2005 Astana SCO summit. Efforts have been made in the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure since 2006 to agree on a list of organizations prohibited on the territory of SCO member states. An incomplete list exists of 'international religious extremist organizations banned in SCO states'; Meeting of SCO member states in Bishkek, AKIpress news agency website, Bishkek, 24 July 2007, BBC Mon CAU 240707 ta/atd. Communiqué of the 2007 Bishkek SCO summit; 24.kg website, Bishkek, 16 August 2007, BBC Mon CAU AS1 AsPol sa/mk/atd. Unpublished communiqué of the 2006 Shanghai SCO Summit, 15 June 2006; and Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 June 2006, pp. 1, 6. This is expressed in the practice of SCO election observers' missions, which have operated alongside CIS observers' missions in Central Asia. Since they began to operate in 2005 they have endorsed all the elections they have observed. For example, the head of the SCO observers mission pronounced the parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan in December 2007 'free, open and transparent'; AKIpress news agency website, Bishkek, 17 December 2007, BBC Mon CAU 171207 yk/es. This whole issue of the likelihood of revolution, either of the democratic or Islamist variety, in Central Asia is explored from the perspective of theories of revolution by Katz Citation(2007).
Publication Year: 2008
Publication Date: 2008-06-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 206
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