Abstract: Abstract Despite an air of Western triumphalism over bin Laden's killing, Pakistan remains a major hub of international terrorism, especially for groups plotting attacks against Western countries. Notes Greg Miller and Peter Finn, ‘CIA Sees Increased Threat from Al-Qaeda in Yemen’, Washington Post, 24 August 2010. Alex Spillius, ‘Is Al-Qaeda On the Run?’, Telegraph, 3 July 2011. President Barack Obama, ‘Remarks by the President on the Way Forward in Afghanistan’, Washington DC, 22 June 2011. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (New York: Free Press, 2006), pp. 273–4. Dana Priest and Susan Schmidt, ‘Al-Qaeda's Top Primed to Collapse, US Says’, Washington Post, 16 March 2003. Testimony of Michael Leiter, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Hearing of the House Homeland Security Committee, 9 February 2011. Stephen Biddle, ‘Is It Worth It? The Difficult Case for War in Afghanistan’, American Interest, July–August 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=617. Mark Sagemen, Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century (Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2008). Winston S. Churchill, The Story of the Malakand Field Force: An Episode of Frontier War (London: Leo Cooper, 1989), p. 3. On complex adaptive systems see, for example, Murray Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1994); John Holland, Hidden Order (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1995); Kevin Dooley, ‘A Complex Adaptive Systems Model of Organization Change’, Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Science, vol. 1, no. 1, 1997, pp. 69–97. Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, revised edition (New York: Columbia University Press, 2006), pp. 285–9. Qaida't al-Jihad Organization General Command, ‘Statement Regarding the Succession in the Leadership of Qaida't al-Jihad’, 16 June 2011. Ayman al-Zawahiri, trans. Laura Mansfield, Knights under the Prophet's Banner (Old Tappan, NJ: TLG Publications, 2002), p. 201. Ibid., p. 47. Omar Khalid Al-Khorasani, Spokesman for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, ‘The Martyrdom of Sheikh Usama and a War of Interests’, 1 June 2011. See, for example, German assessments in Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2010 Annual Report on the Protection of the Constitution (Berlin: Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2010). Al-Shabaab al-Mujahedeen, ‘Comments by Shaykh Ali Dheere Concerning Choosing Shaykh Ayman al-Zawahiri as Amir for Qaida't al-Jihad Group’, Al-Kataib Media, 19 June 2011. Intelligence and Security Committee, Report into the London Terrorist Attacks on 7 July 2005, Cm 6785 (London: The Stationery Office, 2006); Intelligence and Security Committee, Could 7/7 Have Been Prevented? Review of the Intelligence on the London Terrorist Attacks on 7 July 2005, Cm 7617 (London: The Stationery Office, May 2009). United States of America v. Najibullah Zazi, United States District Court, Eastern District of New York, 09-CR-663 (RJD), Memorandum of Law in Support of the Government's Motion for a Permanent Order of Detention, 24 September 2009; United States of America v. Najibullah Zazi, United States District Court, Eastern District of New York, Docket No. 09 CR 663 (S-1), Transcript of Criminal Cause for Pleading, 22 February 2010. United States of America v. Mohamad Shnewer, et al., United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, Case 09-2300, Document 003110268756, 31 August 2010. United States of America v. Russell DeFreitas, et al., United States District Court, Eastern District of New York, Case 1:07-cr-00543-DLI, Document 160-1, 8 March 2010. Jonathan Evans, ‘The Threat to National Security’, Address at the Worshipful Company of Security Professionals by the Director General of the Security Service, 16 September 2010. United States of America v. Adham Amin Hassoun, Kifah Jayyousi, and Jose Padilla, et al., United States District Court, Southern District of Florida, Case No. 04-60001-CR-COOKE/Brown, 29 November 2007; United States of America v. Adham Amin Hassoun, Mohamed Hesham Youssef, Kifah Wael Jayyousi, Kassem Daher, and Jose Padilla, United States District Court, Southern District of Florida, Case No. 04-60001-CR-COOKE, 17 November 2005; United States of America v. Binyam Ahmed Muhammad, Charge: Conspiracy, Official Department of Defense Charge Sheet, 2005. Outside of continental Europe, the largest recent terrorist attack in European history had been the midair bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, which killed 259 passengers and crew on board and 11 people on the ground. Fernando Reinares, ‘The Madrid Bombings and Global Jihadism’, Survival, vol. 52, no. 2, April–May 2010, pp. 83–104; ‘Islamist Website Confirm Death of Key Player in Spanish Train Bombing’, El Pais, 8 May 2010. Testigo protegido, S 20-04-W-18 (17 de marzo de 2005) in Juzgado Central de Instrucción No. 6, Audiencia Nacional, Madrid, Sumario No. 20/2004, p. 1,218. Author interview with Spanish government officials, November 2010; Juzgado Central de Instrucción No. 17, Audiencia Nacional, Madrid, Sumario No. 20/2004, p. 4,414. House of Commons, Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in London on 7th July 2005, HC 1087 (London: The Stationery Office, May 2006). Maqbool Ahmed, ‘Intelligence Agencies Focusing on Hotels’, Daily Times, 19 July 2005; Mobarik A. Virk, ‘London Bombers Came to Karachi’, The News, 19 July 2004. Andy Hayman with Margaret Gilmore, The Terrorist Hunters: The Ultimate Inside Story of Britain's Fight Against Terror (London: Bantam Press, 2009). US Department of Treasury, Treasury Designates Individual Supporting Al Qaida, Other Terrorist Organizations, HP-206 (Washington DC: US Department of Treasury, 19 December 2006); Bruce Hoffman, ‘Radicalization and Subversion: Al-Qaeda and the 7 July 2005 Bombings and the 2006 Airline Bombing Plot’, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, vol. 32, no. 12, December 2009, pp. 1,100–1,116. Andy Hayman, ‘Why I Suspect Jittery Americans Nearly Ruined Efforts to Foil Plot’, Times, 8 September 2009. Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2010 Annual Report on the Protection of the Constitution (Berlin: Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2010). United States of America v. Najibullah Zazi, United States District Court, Eastern District of New York, Docket No.: 09 CR 663 (S-1), Transcript of Criminal Cause for Pleading, 22 February 2010. United States Department of Justice, Zarein Ahmedzay Pleads Guilty to Terror Violations in Connection with Al-Qaeda New York Subway Plot (Washington DC: United States Department of Justice, 23 April 2010). United States Department of Justice, Charges Unsealed against Five Alleged Members of Al-Qaeda Plot to Attack the United States and United Kingdom (Washington DC: United States Department of Justice, 7 July 2010). United States of America v. Najibullah Zazi, United States District Court, Eastern District of New York, Docket No.: 09 CR 663 (S-1), Transcript of Criminal Cause for Pleading, February 22, 2010. See, for example, Metropolitan Police, Briefing Note: Operation Pathway (London: Metropolitan Police, April 2009). United States of America v. David C. Headley, United States District Court, Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division, Criminal Complaint, 11 October 2009. United States of America v. Faisal Shahzad, United States District Court, Southern District of New York, Government's Memorandum with the Sentencing of Faisal Shahzad, Case 1:10-cr-00541-MGC, Document 13, 29 September 2010. See C. Christine Fair, ‘Antecedents and Implications of the November 2008 Lashkar-e-Taiba Attack Upon Mumbai’, Testimony presented before the United States House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation Security and Infrastructure Protection, 11 March 2009. Mariam Abou Zahab and Olivier Roy, Islamist Networks: The Afghan–Pakistan Connection (London: C. Hurst, 2004); C. Christine Fair, ‘Militant Recruitment in Pakistan: Implications for Al-Qa'ida and Other Organizations’, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, vol. 27, no. 6, November–December 2004, pp. 489–504. On networked groups see, for example, John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (eds), In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1997); Ian O. Lesser et al., Countering The New Terrorism (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1999); John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (eds), Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime and Militancy (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001). C. Christine Fair, ‘Pakistan Loses Swat to Local Taliban’, Terrorism Focus, vol. 4, no. 37, 2007. There is little scholarly literature on this phenomenon, with most coverage appearing in the popular press or security publications. See, among others, Rahimullah Yusufzai, ‘The Emergence of the Pakistani Taliban’, Jane's Information Group, 11 December 2007; Hassan Abbas, ‘Is the NWFP Slipping out of Pakistan's Control?’, Terrorism Monitor, vol. 5, no. 22, 2007; Hassan Abbas, ‘Increasing Talibanization in Pakistan's Seven Tribal Agencies’, Terrorism Monitor, vol. 5, no. 18, 2007; Idrees Bakhtiar, ‘Between the Lines’, Herald, July 2007. World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators (Washington DC: World Bank, 2010). Seth G. Jones and C. Christine Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2010), p. 28. Sabrina Tavernise, Richard A. Oppel Jr and Eric Schmitt, ‘United Militants Threaten Pakistan's Populous Heart’, New York Times, 13 April 2009. Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Pakistan Security Report 2010 (Islamabad: Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, 2011). Pew Global Attitudes Project, Support for Campaign against Extremists Wanes: US Image in Pakistan Falls No Further Following bin Laden Killing (Washington DC: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, June 2011). Jones and Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, pp. 5–32. Shuja Nawaz, Crossed Swords (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008); Shuja Nawaz, ‘The First Kashmir War Revisited’, India Review, vol. 7, no. 2, 2008, pp. 115–54; and Robert G. Wirsing, India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir Dispute: On Regional Conflict and its Resolution (New York: St Martin's Press, 1994). Sumit Ganguly, The Crisis in Kashmir: Portents of War, Hopes of Peace (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999); Altaf Gauhar, Ayub Khan: Pakistan's First Military Ruler (Lahore: Sang-e-Meel Publications, 1993); Julian Schofield and Reeta Tremblay, ‘Why Pakistan Failed: Tribal Focoism in Kashmir’, Small Wars and Insurgencies, vol. 19, no. 1, March 2008, pp. 23–38; Nawaz, Crossed Swords, pp. 205–14. Barnett R. Rubin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002); and Rizwan Hussain, Pakistan and the Emergence of Islamic Democracy in Afghanistan (Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2005). Mohammad Yousaf and Mark Adkin, Afghanistan the Bear Trap: The Defeat of a Superpower (Havertown, PA: Casemate, 2001). Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), pp. 2–3. Fernando Reinares, A New Composite Global Terrorism Threat to Western Societies from Pakistan? Making Sense of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona (Madrid: Real Instituto Elcano, February 2010); Audiencia Nacional, Sala de lo Penal, Sección Primera, Sentencia 78/2009, pp. 32–4. United States of America v. Faisal Shahzad, United States District Court, Southern District of New York, Government's Memorandum with the Sentencing of Faisal Shahzad, Case 1:10-cr-00541-MGC, Document 13, 29 September 2010. Louis Beam, ‘Leaderless Resistance’, Seditionist, no. 12, February 1992, p. 5. Sagemen, Leaderless Jihad, p. 140. See, for example, Karin Brulliard and Karen DeYoung, ‘US–Pakistan Cooperation Has Led to Capture of Afghan Taliban Insurgents’, Washington Post, 19 February 2010, p. A1. Jones and Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, p. 129. Seth G. Jones and Martin Libicki, How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering Al-Qaeda (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2008). Syed Irfan Raza, ‘Zardari Renews Demand for US Drone Technology’, Dawn, 7 January 2010. See also ‘Zardari Calls for Transfer of Drone Technology to Pakistan’, Daily Times, 12 February 2010. Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War, trans. Rex Warner (New York: Penguin Books, 1977), p. 53. Quoted in Nawaz, Crossed Swords, p. 95. Additional informationNotes on contributorsSeth G. Jones Seth G. Jones is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan (W.W. Norton). He most recently served as the US Special Operations Command representative to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and before that was an adviser and plans officer for the Commanding General, US Special Operations Forces, in Afghanistan.
Publication Year: 2011
Publication Date: 2011-08-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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