Title: The precautionary principle as a provisional instrument in environmental policy: The Montreal Protocol case study
Abstract: Environmental studies identify possible threats to the health of the public or the environment when the scientific certainty of risk is low, but the potential cost is high. Governments may respond by invoking the Precautionary Principle, holding that scientific certainty is not required to take actions that reduce possible risk. EU guidelines suggest that precautionary measures remain provisional until sufficient scientific certainty is generated. Here I study the Scientific Assessments produced for the Montreal Protocol, and the scientific community that generates them, and ask whether a long-standing program of scientific investigation and monitoring can generate sufficient scientific certainty to move beyond dependence on the Precautionary Principle. When the Montreal Protocol was ratified, many scientists strongly suspected that anthropogenic substances like chlorofluorocarbons were depleting stratospheric ozone. Although the risk was uncertain, the perceived cost to public health of ozone depletion was high. A quarter century after formulating the Montreal Protocol, science can define the conditions for ozone depletion with great certainty, but uncertainty remains in determining the scale and distribution of the attributable increase in damaging ultra-violet (UV) radiation. Organisations, such as NASA, and scientists that contribute to the Scientific Assessments comprise the community in which the scientific consensus of risk is based. Many of these scientists act both as "honest brokers" and "issue advocates", and through their shared interest in policy, may act to narrow the range of policy options. For example, modelled projections of low certainty are reported by Montreal Protocol contributing organisations to promote the importance of adhering to the Montreal Protocol. More comprehensive models of atmospheric chemistry incorporate more factors with interdependencies between variables. Consequently, outcomes projecting high risk and greater uncertainty are projected. As new reports of uncertain risk are propagated by studies from contributing organisations, continued application of the Precautionary Principle is required. The Montreal Protocol case suggests that when environmental studies introduce new concerns that trigger a policy response, the Precautionary Principle will act to perpetuate the research activity of contributing organisations, and extend the implementation of precautionary measures. Given the self-renewing nature this process, the precautionary measures are then not provisional.
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-03-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 13
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