Title: Simulating current regional pattern and composition of Chilean native forests using a dynamic ecosystem model
Abstract: Native forests are one of the most important natural resources in Chile whose distribution area has been drastically reduced by land-use changes. Due to Chilean native forests are characterized by having a high economic and ecological value, it is important to have efficient tools that allow assessing the impacts of different factors such as climate change and land-use changes on those ecosystems in the future. In this sense, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can be used as an effective tool to meet with that requirement. In this study, a DGVM, LPJ-GUESS, was applied to simulate the current potential regional pattern and composition of native forests located in south-central Chile (31°S-56°S). To meet this goal a set of plant functional types (PFTs) representing the major taxa in this area was created and parameterized. To evaluate the simulated distribution pattern and the simulated vegetation composition, the models outputs were compared against a map of natural Chilean vegetation and selected sites respectively. To assess the accuracy of the model in capturing the potential distribution of main forests the Kappa statistic was calculated. The model was run for the period 1901-2006 with a resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. LPJ-GUESS captured the general distribution of high-Andean steppe (Kappa statistic of 0.65) and temperate rain forests (Kappa statistic of 0.50). In the case of sclerophyllous forests/shrublands (Kappa statistic of 0.88) and cool deciduous forests/woodlands (dominated by Nothofagus pumilio; Kappa statistic of 0.28), the model underestimated the presence of their main components (i.e. PFTs) in the northern areas of their distributions. Temperate deciduous forests were not simulated. Because the model simulated new vegetation classes the Kappa statistic was calculated for an area between 32.5°S-56°S. At site level, LPJ-GUESS predicted the general composition of coastal temperate rainforests (41.5 and 42°S), Magellanic rainforest (56°S) and cool deciduous forests (46°S). In general, the model failed to capture the vegetation composition in sites located in Andean region between 38°S and 40.5°S. The uncertainties in PFT parameterization, the model’s soil hydrology, the low resolution and quality of soil and climate input data, and the lack of a component to represent large-scale disturbance would be the main reasons in explaining the mismatch between the simulated vegetation and the observed current vegetation. These results suggest that LPJ-GUESS model can be a valid tool to project future responses of ecosystems that are dominated by temperate rainforests to changes in climate and land-use in the future at regional scale.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 12
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