Title: The Closeness-Turnout Hypothesis a Reconsideration
Abstract: According to the durable “closeness-turnout hypothesis,” a close election will generate high interest in a campaign and appear to invest the individual vote with unusual significance, thus stimulating high participation rates. But from the competing perspective of “selective information flow,” the perception of a close election will reach only the voters who already maintain substantial interest in politics and strong participatory orientations, leaving turnout largely unaffected. These competing perspectives are tested with data from the 1980 National Election Study. In a path model of the closeness-turnout hypothesis perceived closeness in the preelection survey neither encouraged strong interest in the campaign nor contributed directly to participation rates. On the other hand, a model incorporating the assumptions of selective information flow justified the treatment of perceived closeness as the end product of political interest and attentiveness, a factor that did not contribute to turnout independent of its antecedents. The findings challenge the status of perceived closeness as an independent variable and, by implication, the power of election night forecasts to influence turnout rates.
Publication Year: 1985
Publication Date: 1985-07-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 7
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