Title: Calculation of past and present water availability in the Mediterranean Region and future estimates according to the Thornthwaite water-balance model
Abstract: The Mediterranean region is one of the most sensitive regions in the world in the face of climate change. Many studies name this region as a “hot spot”. It is essential to model the water balance of this region in order to better understand the impacts of climate change. The water balance expresses the net result of the flow of water from atmosphere to the surface and vice versa. It is one of the best ways to examine water availability –if the region is dry or wet- in a region. The first input of the model is potential evapotranspiration, which is calculated as a function of temperature and latitude using specific formulae produced by Thornthwaite. The other factors of the water balance are storage, actual evapotranspiration, surplus and deficit. This study spans different time periods which are for the past, present and future. Because of changes that have already occurred in climate, the model produces different results for the three periods. Temperature rise will affect the water balance by enhancing potential evapotranspiration in the Mediterranean Region. Warming-enhanced evapotranspiration will hence increase water stress in the region. It is suggested that this effect will be more severe when combined with the decrease of precipitation. Areas under high stress are mainly in the inlands of North Africa, and mountainous areas such as the Alps. In the region there will not only be enhanced deficits, but also increased surpluses are suggested in some seasons. As has been shown in other studies, this study suggests significant seasonality in the Mediterranean Region. In general, the future Mediterranean Region seems to be exposed to more severe conditions and water availability will be under much greater stress. Most studies suggest a 20% decrease in precipitation and up to 4˚C of temperature rise in the Mediterranean Region by the end of this century. This study only focuses on temperature rise in the future, holding precipitation the same as in the present period. Even so, the model suggests significant changes in the future water balance of the Mediterranean Region.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 8
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