Title: Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine GDP Growth*
Abstract: We propose a small-scale dynamic factor model for monitoring Argentine GDP in real time using economic data at mixed frequencies (monthly and quarterly) which are published with different time lags. Our model not only produces a coincident index of the Argentine business cycle in striking accordance with professional consensus and the history of the Argentine business cycle, but also generates accurate short-run forecasts of the highly volatile Argentine GDP growth. By using a simulated real-time empirical evaluation, we show that our model produces reliable backcasts, nowcasts and forecasts well before the offcial data is released.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-04-01
Language: en
Type: preprint
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Cited By Count: 5
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