Title: A Comparison of the Usefulness of Winters' and SARIMA Models in Forecasting of Procurement Prices of Milk in Poland
Abstract: In the paper the Winters’ model has been studied as one from 8 adaptive models based on exponential smoothing methods as well as seasonal 9 autoregressive integrated moving average model SARIMA. The aim of the 10 paper is the assessment of accuracy of short-term forecasts of procurement 11 prices of milk in Poland. Empirical verification of ex post forecasts 12 of monthly procurement prices of milk on the basis of 109 time series with 13 12-month forecast horizon was conducted. Forecasts constructed with the use 14 of SARIMA model are more often exact than when additive and 15 multiplicative Winters’ model are used. 16
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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