Title: Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany
Abstract: Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD?s forecasts for Germany?s consumption and GDP growth.
Publication Year: 2003
Publication Date: 2003-01-01
Language: en
Type: preprint
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