Abstract: World crisis of year 2008 has come next to the outstanding economic boom of 2003-2008 – world real GDP had risen by a third during this period. On this basis appeared a hope to solve the critical problems of humanity: lower the poverty level, save the climate and protect the human rights. Resolution of these and many other issues demanded huge long term capital investments at the level of a few percent of the world GDP. As the world community was trying to solve these problems it became obvious that solution based on strictly liberal methods is not feasible. Capital flows have continued to follow short term profit opportunities, like on the world financial markets, and not fighting poverty. Jumping commodity prices demonstrated a shortage in extraction and refinement capacity, and, together with dangerously rising food prices at the end of the booming stage, the global imbalances characteristic of pre-crisis situation have appeared. In this situation only a trigger was needed to switch to the crisis – stock market crash, oil crisis or a significant bankrupcy – something from the arsenal of the recent centuries detonators. Oil prices hike took place following the start of the crawling financial crisis in the USA since August 2007. Before that huge profits of the oil exporters returned to the industrial producers (especially Germany and China) as a form of export demand. It ensured the support of the boom for a few more years and demonstrated the insufficiency of the models that predicted the decline in the growth levels based on the experience of the 70-80`s. In essence it was a hidden devaluation of Dollar and Euro (and Renminbi and Yen) – relative to the barrel of oil it was necessary to sell more industrial goods. But imbalances in the economy due to overpriced oil still came in the form of strong pressure of the price on the oil consumption in transportation. Attempts of the governments of the developed countries to break out of the dependence (from OPEC and Russia) using renewable energy sources have played their roles, trying to solve a number of economic and political problems. Energy and political conflicts have worsened the situation at the end of the boom. Mortgage crisis in the USA for a year – from August to August – appeared quite dangerous, but few have suspected that the foundation of the financial system is melting. The beginning of the world financial crisis will most likely be dated the day the “Lehman Brothers”
Publication Year: 2009
Publication Date: 2009-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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