Title: Study of potential coal utilization, 1985--2000
Abstract: Growing energy requirements beyond 1985 will require continued expansion of coal use and will impose a considerable strain on the mining and transportation industries. National projections tend to obscure the reality that the impacts of this expansion will not be borne equally throughout the nation, but will fall heavily on the coal-producing regions, particularly on those in the west. The Federal government's policy to develop a commercial synthetic fuels industry may result in a new and growing coal market during this period, as well. To examine these factors, regional supplies and demands for coal, oil, and natural gas were estimated for 1985 and 2000. National coal supplies of 1018 million tons in 1985 (consistent with FEA's 1976 National Energy Outlook) and 1836 million tons in 2000 were employed in this analysis. In order to estimate transportation and consumption patterns for these supplies, a substantial data base was assembled estimating interregional energy-transportation costs. Delivered energy costs were then estimated regionally by combining the wellhead or mine-mouth costs of the fuel resource with these transportation charges. Coal transportation and use patterns for electric utilities, industrial steam, and synthetic-fuel producers were determined by linking the supply, demand, and cost estimates and solving the resulting network through a cost-minimizing linear program formulation. The coal-use patterns generated through this formulation constituted the basis of an investigation of constraints that might preclude this development. Major findings are summarized.