Title: Forecasting Use of Nonmotorized Infrastructure: Models of Bicycle and Pedestrian Traffic in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Abstract: Traffic counts and other basic information about use of non-motorized facilities generally are unavailable for planning and managing transportation systems. Because officials lack both the data and tools needed to forecast use of facilities, their ability to make evidence-based choices among investment alternatives and to optimize management of transportation systems is limited. This paper summarizes counts of cyclists and pedestrians at 240 locations in the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota, and presents new models for forecasting non-motorized traffic. Scaling factors for adjusting hourly counts to 12-hour counts are derived. It is shown that one-hour peak-hour counts correlate as well with 12-hour counts as two-hour peak hour counts. Across all facility types, mean pedestrian traffic (69/hour) exceeded mean bicycle traffic (42/hour) by 64 percent. Both bicycle and pedestrian traffic are associated with street functional class, and, for all types of streets, bicycle traffic is higher on streets with bicycle facilities than without, all other factors equal. Models for forecasting 12-hour bicycle and pedestrian traffic as a function of weather, neighborhood socio-demographics, built environment characteristics, and street and bicycle facility type explain 25 percent and 28 percent, respectively, of observed variation in traffic. These new models can be used to forecast traffic for street segments where counts are unavailable and to estimate changes in traffic associated with other changes such as creation of bicycle lanes or redevelopments that change land use. These new models can be extended in the future with additional counts at new locations and by adding new variables.
Publication Year: 2011
Publication Date: 2011-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 8
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