Title: Identification of territorial ecological protection and restoration areas and early warning places based on ecological security pattern: a case study in Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Region
Abstract: 厦漳泉地区是福建省开展生态保护修复的关键区域，识别、预警国土空间生态薄弱区对实施国土空间生态修复具有重要意义。研究通过MSPA、MCR等模型方法识别2000-2018年动态稳定性与连通性兼具的生态源地，提取生态廊道、生态节点等构建该地区的生态安全格局，采用FLUS模型在生态安全格局限制下模拟2030年土地利用变化，综合划分厦漳泉地区国土空间生态保护修复区并展开预警。结果表明，厦漳泉地区生态安全格局由12个生态源地，66条潜在生态廊道、13条重要生态廊道与若干生态节点等构成，生态源地主要分布在研究区西部，生态廊道为纵横交错的网状结构，部分生境较脆弱的县（区）无生态源地与廊道分布，生态节点集聚特征显著；2030年研究区耕地、林地面积呈减少趋势，建设用地面积增幅显著，建设用地向四周的耕地与林地呈环状扩张，挤压生态空间，威胁生态源地与廊道。综上，研究划分了1个生态源地保护带、2个生态修复核心区，并明确生态保护空间预警点，可为完善国土空间生态安全格局的保护与建设等提供基础信息，对开展生态保护修复协同治理、提升区域生态环境质量与人民福祉有重要意义。;Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Region is located in the southeast of Fujian Province, China. It's a crucial area of ecological protection and restoration in Fujian Province. The identification and warning of fragile ecological area means significantly to implementation of ecological restoration. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) model, Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model and other methods were utilized to build ecological security pattern in this region. At the meantime, the ecological sources were dynamically stable and connected. Then, land use change in 2030 was simulated by using the FLUS model under the restriction of the ecological security pattern. It means the area of ecological sources was restricted from changing during this period. FLUS model also comprehensively divided the territory ecological protection and restoration area into different kinds and warned the potential risk. The results showed that the ecological security pattern of the study area was composed of 12 ecological sources, 66 potential ecological corridors, 13 important ecological corridors and several ecological nodes. The ecological sources were mainly distributed in the west of the study area, which was composed of mountains, hills and rivers.. And the ecological corridors widely spread out into a complicated network. Some counties (districts) with fragile habitats had no ecological sources and corridors distribution like Shishi, Jinjiang. The ecological nodes were massively gathering together in Nan'an and Zhangzhou city. After that, it's predicted in 2030, the area of cultivated land and woodland in the study area would gradually decrease about 2.59% and 1.14% due to great expansion of construction land. As the construction land expanded to the surrounding cultivated land and woodland in a circular way, it was squeezing the ecological space and threatening the ecological sources area and corridors. The expansion patterns of coastal areas and inland areas in the study area were different. The construction land of coastal cities and counties mainly expanded in a belt shape, while the original built-up areas mainly expanded outward in a ring shape. In conclusion, this study separated one ecological sources protection belt and two ecological restoration cores, and pointed out the potential risk of ecological protection space. They were significantly concentrated in Quanzhou and Zhangzhou districts. Meanwhile, it is expected to give some fundamental information to further improvement of ecological security of territorial space. Also, we believe that it can contribute a lot to carry out synergy governance of ecological protection and restoration, as well as to promote regional ecology quality and human's well-being.