Title: The A1B Scenario Projection for Climate Change over the Tibetan Plateau in the Next 30~50 Years
Abstract: Based on the ensemble average of outputs under the mid-range emission(A1B) scenario from 20 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report(IPCC-AR4),and dynamically downscaling results driven by modeling outputs from a global climate model,climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the next 30~50 years has been studied.The results show that annual-mean surface air temperature would rise by 1.4~2.2℃ averaged for 2030~2049 in most portionsof the Plateau with respect to that for 1980—1999.Climatic warming is more prominent in higher-elevation regions and in colder seasons.For example,the temperature would increase up to 2.4℃or morein Xizang autonomous regionin winter.The change in precipitation would be relatively small and generally below 5%,though the precipitation likely increases in main parts of the Plateau and in most seasons.Considering of various uncertainties in future emission of atmospheric greenhouse gases,skill of multi-model ensemble projection and regional-scale modeling,timing reexamination and correction will be needed when the above projections turn to practical applications.
Publication Year: 2009
Publication Date: 2009-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 11
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